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A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland


Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)

Subject Keywords: Climate change, Risk Assessment
Topic: Fuel Poverty
Type: Report
Region: Northern Ireland

This climate change risk assessment for Northern Ireland has been produced as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). The CCRA is required under Section 56 of the Climate Change Act 2008, and will be laid before Parliament in January 2012. This report presents a national assessment of potential risks (and opportunities) from climate change facing Northern Ireland for the period to 2100. Its findings will inform the development of adaptation work in Northern Ireland.

The assessment draws together and presents evidence from individual CCRA UK sector reports and recent research literature. The findings are presented for a range of possible future scenarios and include an indication of confidence in the results and areas where there are evidence gaps.

Northern Ireland’s current climate is one of relatively mild winters and cool summers, although within the natural variability of its climate, Northern Ireland can experience periods of more extreme cold, wet, windy and hot weather.

The CCRA is based on the UK Climate Projections, which were published in 2009 (UKCP09). This provides projections of climate change for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared with the period 1961-90. For each epoch, a range of climate change scenarios have been considered. For example, changes under the 2050s Medium emissions scenario (central estimate) indicate:
- An increase in mean winter temperatures of 1.7°C (range 0.6 to 3.0°C)1

- An increase in mean summer temperatures of 2.2°C (range 0.9 to 3.9°C)

- An increase in mean winter precipitation of 9% (range 2% decrease to 20% increase)

- An decrease in mean summer precipitation of 13% (range 25% decrease to 5% increase)



Rights: © Crown Copyright
Suggested citation:

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). (2012) A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland [Online]. Available from: [Accessed: 22nd July 2019].


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